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 Post subject: What if 'Iron Dome' is a Bluff?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:58 am 
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Iron Dome is Israeli society’s deus ex machina coming from nowhere to solve the problems that left us helpless. We worship it. Unquestioningly. We were told up front that it can guarantee interception of only 90 percent of the rockets launched at us, so even a little damage and a few casualties and fatalities won’t cause us to doubt its efficacy.

However, Israel Defense Prize laureate and aerospace engineer Dr. Moti Shefer, whose specialty is interception missiles, says Iron Dome is a bluff. It doesn’t intercept anything but rather invents virtual rockets. The explosions we hear are the sounds of Iron Dome missiles self-destructing. As of the writing of these lines, Hamas rockets have done very little damage to people and property. We see this as proof of Iron Dome’s efficacy and reliability; Shefer says the number of rockets coming in from the Gaza Strip is immeasurably smaller than what Iron Dome reports and in any case they are tinpot weapons, so 95 percent of the time we are safe anyway, irrespective of Iron Dome (and the endless “open spaces” with which we have suddenly been blessed, like some new sort of manna rained down upon us by a benevolent deity).


http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-1.606034

Can anyone who knows more about this than I comment? Is the article the kind of speculation that should be dismissed or is there some grounding to it?

I'm always more likely to attribute incompetence than conspiracy, if is the case that the system 'creates' missiles, could this not just be a flaw in the system, a system likely to risk killing a few birds rather than let a rocket through?

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 Post subject: Re: What if 'Iron Dome' is a Bluff?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:30 am 
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So the Iron Dome sucks but is good at inventing attacks?

Nah.

Plenty of folks hate Israel, no need to invent a dragon.

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 Post subject: Re: What if 'Iron Dome' is a Bluff?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:42 am 
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And if Hamas's rockets are so ineffective why do they fire them? To goad Israel into attacking them so a bunch of westerners can see some bad pictures and cry crocodile tears for the Palestinians?

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 Post subject: Re: What if 'Iron Dome' is a Bluff?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:52 am 
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clubgop wrote:
And if Hamas's rockets are so ineffective why do they fire them? To goad Israel into attacking them so a bunch of westerners can see some bad pictures and cry crocodile tears for the Palestinians?


Possibly the same reason that Palestinian kids throw rocks at tanks? You tighten the screws on people enough and they are going to fight, even if it is only in a symbolic fashion.

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 Post subject: Re: What if 'Iron Dome' is a Bluff?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:13 am 
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Why would Israel even need an excuse or coverup to do anything anyways? It's not like they are in favor with the humanitarian organizations anyways.


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 Post subject: Re: What if 'Iron Dome' is a Bluff?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2014 9:59 am 
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It is extremely likely that the effectiveness of Iron Dome is being vastly exaggerated by the IDF and Rafael, it's really just Rafael's Derby anti-aircraft missile converted for C-RAM (Counter Rocket Artillery Mortar), it's nothing particularly special or new, with a proximity fused warhead, the missile will detonate close to the incoming rocket, but does not destroy it, the explosion seen is simply the warhead of the Iron Dome missile detonating by proximity fuse, the incoming rocket will still fall to the ground and explode. This would be a similar situation to the exaggeration of the Patriot missile's effectiveness vs. SCUD during the first gulf war. The low Israeli casualties are more likely due to the low yield of the incoming rockets warhead, the early warning system the Isrealis all get through their smart phones, and the bomb shelters the Isrealis have quick access to. The "Iron Dome" system does include the radar that gives them the early warning, so it is providing that, but the "90%" interception rate is, as I said, mostly likely bogus, it's probably more like 10%. That being said, all's fair in love and war, nobody ever said you couldn't bluff, and placebo's can be effective if the patient believes that they are working.

Mind you, at $80,000 a missile, Rafael is bluffing all the way to the bank. In the end, the Americans are picking up the tab, so it's all good; JMIC y'all, holla.

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Last edited by Smitty-48 on Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:23 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: What if 'Iron Dome' is a Bluff?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:22 am 
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Well, I guess Israel has their brand of truthers too.



I can say one thing about those folks, after having dealt indirectly with them in government contracting for a while, they are the most clever society I have encountered. Their technological output (and innovation) per capita is actually amazing. This goes back a while too. During the Yom Kippur War, they cracked Soviet ECM in months. It took us years to do the same thing in Vietnam around the same time.

In another thread somebody asked if Israel is a good ally to have. I don't know about all the political baggage that comes with it, but I can say that on technology alone they are extremely valuable partners to have. We keep them at arm's reach because of all their spying on our defense and intelligence contractors (as well as our government itself). But if we really did bring them into the fold and worked jointly with them, I think we would make a very big leap ahead of the rest of the world in terms of technology.

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 Post subject: Re: What if 'Iron Dome' is a Bluff?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:30 am 
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A Jew's gotta do what a Jew's gotta do to beat back these dastardly "Palestinian" interlopers, can't really enjoy a sexy pool party with all these rockets raining down; bloody uncivilized, wot? Iron Dome is good for morale, but really the most effective countermeasure is to bomb the shit out of them until they stop causing such a ruckus, or as the IDF calls it; "re-establishing deterrence".

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 Post subject: Re: What if 'Iron Dome' is a Bluff?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:56 am 
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Quote:
It is extremely likely that the effectiveness of Iron Dome is being vastly exaggerated by the IDF and Rafael, it's really just Rafael's Derby anti-aircraft missile converted for C-RAM (Counter Rocket Artillery Mortar), it's nothing particularly special or new, with a proximity fused warhead, the missile will detonate close to the incoming rocket, but does not destroy it, the explosion seen is simply the warhead of the Iron Dome missile detonating by proximity fuse, the incoming rocket will still fall to the ground and explode. This would be a similar situation to the exaggeration of the Patriot missile's effectiveness vs. SCUD during the first gulf war. The low Israeli casualties are more likely due to the low yield of the incoming rockets warhead, the early warning system the Isrealis all get through their smart phones, and the bomb shelters the Isrealis have quick access to. The "Iron Dome" system does include the radar that gives them the early warning, so it is providing that, but the "90%" interception rate is, as I said, mostly likely bogus, it's probably more like 10%. That being said, all's fair in love and war, nobody ever said you couldn't bluff, and placebo's can be effective if the patient believes that they are working.

Mind you, at $80,000 a missile, Rafael is bluffing all the way to the bank. In the end, the Americans are picking up the tab, so it's all good; JMIC y'all, holla.

Great reply, thanks! :D


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Possibly the same reason that Palestinian kids throw rocks at tanks? You tighten the screws on people enough and they are going to fight, even if it is only in a symbolic fashion.


And fire AKs at jet planes.

There is also the reality that Hamas has to be seen to be doing something, anything... their launches usually come in the wake of a Palestinian death, to be seen to be replying.

http://blog.thejerusalemfund.org/2012/0 ... s.html?m=1

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 Post subject: Re: What if 'Iron Dome' is a Bluff?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:33 am 
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In all fairness to Rafael, their other premiere product, the Trophy™ Active Protection System, seems to be working exactly as advertised; the Palestinians posted this video to show an Israeli Merkava being destroyed, but as you can see, the Trophy APS actually prevents it...



(For the uninitiated; Trophy APS mounts small radars on your vehicle which detect incoming projectiles, RPG's, ATGM's, even Sabot tank rounds, and then shoots them down with a kinetic interceptor, just short of impact, as there is a limit to how much armor you can load on a vehicle, making preemptive intercept the only way to effectively "uparmor" the vehicle at some point, key difference between Iron Dome and Trophy; Trophy is a hit-to-kill kinetic system, rather than proximity fused HE; uses the radar to aim a metal slug at an incoming weapon and destroys it with the combined force of collision, rather than flying close to it and then exploding.)

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 Post subject: Re: What if 'Iron Dome' is a Bluff?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:44 am 
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I think it is amusing when we see Euros and their Aussie cousins, who talk a lot of trash about racism in America, then come in here and root Palestinian rocket attacks on Jewish neighborhoods while trying to downplay any accomplishments that the Israelis make in defending those neighborhood from those same attacks.

I guess Jew doesn't translate to a class of the "good guys" in Aussie marxism school.


Why the hell would you criticize a defensive missile system that protects people from terror attacks? What the fuck?

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Last edited by Dr. Strangelove on Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: What if 'Iron Dome' is a Bluff?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:45 am 
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Smitty-48 wrote:
In all fairness to Rafael, their other premiere product, the Trophy™ Active Protection System, seems to be working exactly as advertised; the Palestinians posted this video to show an Israeli Merkava being destroyed, but as you can see, the Trophy APS actually prevents it...



(For the uninitiated; Trophy APS mounts small radars on your vehicle which detect incoming projectiles, RPG's, ATGM's, even Sabot tank rounds, and then shoots them down with a kinetic interceptor, just short of impact, as there is a limit to how much armor you can load on a vehicle, making preemptive intercept the only way to effectively "uparmor" the vehicle at some point, key difference between Iron Dome and Trophy; Trophy is a hit-to-kill kinetic system, rather than proximity fused HE; uses the radar to aim a metal slug at an incoming weapon and destroys it with the combined force of collision, rather than flying close to it and then exploding.)


That's the kinda good shit I need Smitty, where you been?

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 Post subject: Re: What if 'Iron Dome' is a Bluff?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:51 am 
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kybkh wrote:

That's the kinda good shit I need Smitty, where you been?


Oh, well, it's summertime and the livin' is easy; can't be cooped up inside on the computer all day when the weather is this nice, I'm just checkin' in from time to time to maintain morale and esprit de corps...

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 Post subject: Re: What if 'Iron Dome' is a Bluff?
PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:20 pm 
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The Iron Dome program is a marketing campaign. The examination of hundreds of video and photographic "intercepts" since the latest campaign confirm this. But it hardly comes as a surprise.

The team that was excoriated and condemned by the US military establishment (Schwarzkopf, remember) during a similar analysis of the Patriot and related antimissile systems during the first Gulf War was later revealed to be quite accurate...and the brass knew it all along.

This same team, and several others, have concluded an intercept rate of at most five percent, and as low as two percent.

The Iron Dome is a political front to engender optimism and support on the one hand, and a Carcassonne play (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lady_Carcas) on the other.

False security has been a most reliable source of vast wealth through the ages. Missile defense systems like this are brazenly incompetent to those who need to know these sorts of things. Politicians don't need to know.

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 Post subject: Re: What if 'Iron Dome' is a Bluff?
PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:51 pm 
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Patriot missile batteries are pretty damned accurate, dude.

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